Actually, the reason theyve spent no money is that Dolan is cheap and knows hell make money win or lose. This starts with bullishness on the Matts. Theres a lot to like about the Miami Marlins, but most of those things are on the pitching side. Padres sneaking in as a WC team and reaching or possibly winning the WS would be an amazing 2022. by Handedness, ATC 2022 Projected Standings and Playoff Odds, the most accurate baseball projections over the past three seasons, A Conversation With Philadelphia Phillies Southpaw Bailey Falter (Who Is Unique), The Hopefully-Not-Horrifyingly-Inaccurate 2022 ZiPS Projections: American League. Not when they need a 2B, at least one OF, maybe a C and P. Ariel Cohen is a fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) and the Society of Actuaries (SOA). It seems nearly certain that Marcell Ozuna will return, but from a baseball standpoint, he didnt hit at all early last year. The addition of Trevor Story to their roster gives the Red Sox three superstars on the infield with a fantastic supporting cast led by J.D. If you start by looking at the offensive comps in the chart below, you can see how quickly things go downhill in the batters projections. In five years, he could be their Carlos Correa. To support those two generational talents, the Angels focused on shoring up their biggest weakness during this stretch of frustration: their pitching staff. The latest episode of The Sleeper and the Bust is live. Thats not to say their offseason was a failure. Im looking forward to Adley Rutschman, Grayson Rodriguez, Cedric Mullins, and quickly changing the subject to the American League Central lest I have to think too much about this team. by Handedness, Looking Back at the 2022 ZiPS Projections, 2022 ZiPS Projections: Washington Nationals, 2022 ZiPS Projections: Kansas City Royals. by Mike Podhorzer November 16, 2022 Let's finish up my Pod Projection reviews by looking at former top starting pitching prospect, Josiah Gray. by Retrosheet. Read the rest of this entry . Thats true for everyone in baseball, but the error bars for the win projections for this quintet feel particularly wide. As it is, theyll likely have to get excited in late May when Cruz has all of a sudden taken a big step forward defensively. Taking home runs away in Baltimore seems like a cruel reward for fans who have been dragged through three 100-loss seasons in the last four years. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Lance Lynns knee injury isnt as serious as Garrett Crochets Tommy John surgery, but losing the former means Chicago will have to turn to either Vince Velasquez or Reynaldo Lpez until Johnny Cueto is ready to go. The Guardians and Royals are both teams with limited short-term upside after low-key offseasons. Welcome back, baseball! So we project probabilities, not certainties. The exercise continues this offseason. This year? Braves Hall of Fame profile: Bronson Arroyo. They project the Braves, or at least the current version of the Braves, to a post a 91-71 record, winning the division by one game over the New York Mets. These standings represent the best estimates ZiPS can make at this point about where a team sits in the leagues pecking order, based solely on the players currently under contract with the team. He was the biggest addition to their club, but they also traded for Sonny Gray, Gary Snchez, and Gio Urshela, and made a last minute move for Chris Paddack and Emilio Pagn. In my mind, that extreme difference in atmosphere and home-away record makes the Rockies the most interesting team in the league outside of the Rays. 2023 ZiPS Projected Standings AL Central, 2023 ZiPS Projected Standings NL Central. Standings at this point are a poor predictor of the 2023 season and even the eventual 2023 projections themselves but what they are able to do is give a "state of the union" estimate for each. The exercise continues this offseason. And thats where all these models are built. Every time I projected the Mariners this winter, they showed incremental improvement. Which team in baseball has the best middle infield? AZ, CO, CT, IL, IN, IA, KS, LA, (select parishes), MD, MI, NH, NJ, NY, OH, OR, PA, TN, VA, WV, WY, CA-ONT only.Eligibility restrictions apply. The Yankees entered the offseason with clear needs at shortstop and first base, and in the starting rotation and yet didnt sign any of the many big name free agents who could have filled those holes. When it comes to the Giants, ZiPS is increasingly a fan of Kyle Harrison, which helps to mute some of the loss of Carlos Rodn. If the last 2 years are any indication, we'd need to bank on another 60 game season, God damn they are more optimistic than me. The 2022-23 Premier League fixtures. Check out these NFL playoffs picks and predictions for the game, which can be seen at 1 p.m. MST on CBS and Paramount+. Interestingly, projected for the 8th best record and 4th best (tied) run differential. ZiPS then generates a million versions of each team in Monte Carlo fashion the computational algorithms, that is (no one is dressing up in a tuxedo and playing baccarat like James Bond). ZiPS Projections 2023 2022 AL For the 18th consecutive season, the ZiPS projection system is unleashing a full set of prognostications. My own expectation (Vazquez) would be $8-14M. Odds & lines subject to change. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted 2022 ZiPS Projections: Atlanta Braves. And the As, well, they didnt have anyone good enough to lose, which is something! That thins out their pitching staff significantly; theyre now relying on a 40-year-old Adam Wainwright to lead the rotation and are counting on the health of Miles Mikolas, Dakota Hudson, and Jordan Hicks after that trio combined for 29 appearances over the last two years. Note that this is NOT the actual 2022-2023 college basketball AP Poll - it's our prediction and projection of what it might be before it's released. ATC: ATC Projections courtesy of Ariel Cohen. The lesson is that the competitive window can close really fast, dont take anything for granted, and dont invite back your 76 year old buddy to manage the team because you feel like you owe him a favor. The first part is Juan Soto, who got Ted Williams as his top offensive comp. With three World Series appearances over the last five seasons and just one championship to show for it, you could view their recent dynasty as having some unfinished business despite its excellence. Kirby Yates returns after a lackluster 2022 season in which he posted an ERA over 4.00, and the. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. It wouldnt be surprising to see the mean absolute error for an exercise like this, I want to use the simplest tool that gets the point across creep up over time. ATC Projections Expected 2022 Win Totals. Regardless, there might finally be some glimmers of hope on the horizon. At least its steamed crab season! Dansby Swanson is a big loss, but when you see the projection for Vaughn Grissom, youll understand why the Braves dominate this very preliminary run of the NL East standings. Bryce Harpers return from elbow surgery is, of course, one of the real X factors thats hard to fully consider here. Read the rest of this entry . All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, They swung a major trade with the Twins to get Josh Donaldson and Isiah Kiner-Falefa and also re-signed Anthony Rizzo. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a. In the. Ostensibly, theyre allowing him time to work on his defense since he could be moving off shortstop sooner rather than later, but hed at least give fans in Pittsburgh something to get excited about. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. The Angels have the benefit here of having most of the teams performance tied up in just a few players, with nobody crucial headed to free agency. Ariel is the 2019 FSWA Baseball Writer of the Year. Read the rest of this entry . The As might have had one more competitive season with their core that won nearly 60% of their games from 2018 to 20. by Handedness, The Sleeper and the Bust Episode: 1124 2023 1B Rankings Preview #1, https://media.blubrry.com/rotographs/cdn-podcasts.fangraphs.com/RotoGraphs-Audio-01-09-2023.mp3, Justin Masons Baseball Chat January 9th, 2023. The talent was evident, but ownership was clearly reluctant to spend any additional money or prospect capital to supplement the core again. by Retrosheet. Play-by-play data prior to 2002 was obtained free of charge from and is copyrighted Here's how PECOTA sees the 2022 season: This is just the NL East of course, you can view the full projections here. Should the Orioles trade Mountcastle for a good starter? by Handedness. That makes the Rangers an interesting case study in a team trying to buy its way out of its rebuilding phase before the top prospects are ready to contribute. With a standard $20 membership, you help maintain and improve our database of stats and graphs as well as our staff of 8 full-time employees and over 50 contributors. We had four good months last year. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. Also gotta remember that the rest of the Central teams (especially Twins) have payroll space. Crochets elbow injury, meanwhile, wouldnt have been as big a blow to the teams depth if it hadnt come immediately after the White Sox traded away Craig Kimbrel. You can subscribe to the podcast on iTunes or via the feed. The Bills are a 4.5-point favorite in the game. Rutschman is a complete, franchise-altering prospect, and one of the most exciting young players in the entire sport. ATC further sets itself apart from other statistical aggregation methods. Here we see the results of Alex Anthopoulos ruthlessly ensuring that Atlantas entire core stays put for a very long time. Third base (or second) is a better long-term home for him than shortstop, so last years Willy Adames acquisition showed the correct instinct on Milwaukees part. The Tigers were one of the better teams in the American League during the second half of 2021 as they started to break out of their rebuilding cycle. In came Mike Minor, Tommy Pham, Solano, and a few other role players. But the same question that has hung over their recent run of success remains for this squad: will they score enough runs to support their excellent pitching staff? Help Support FanGraphs. Im always tinkering with methodology, but most of the low-hanging fruit of predicting how teams do have already been harvested. The surprises start at the top, with the Braves sitting ahead of the Dodgers for the top spot in the preseason rankings. Paul is the Editor of Rotographs and contributes to ESPN's Daily Notes. (You can learn more about the FanGraphs playoff odds here.). Last year, I introduced these power rankings as a way to think about all 30 teams in baseball and stack them up against each other outside the rigid structures of leagues or divisions. ZiPS then generates a million versions of each team in Monte Carlo fashion the computational algorithms, that is (no one is dressing up in a tuxedo and playing baccarat like James Bond). Before we get to the 2023 ZiPS projections, theres still some unfinished work from 2022 to do. That move alters the direction of the organization considerably. The contract that Carlos Correa signed with the Twins really calls into question some of the Yankees maneuvering during the final weeks of the offseason. The Padres would love to put the summer of 2021 behind them, but they just cant escape the bad vibes that saw them win just 18 games during the last two months of the season. by Retrosheet. FanGraphs simulates each season 10,000 times to generate the probabilities. Lets start with the good news first: Kansas Citys offense has several very interesting offensive players in the high minors. They traded for Matt Olson and immediately signed him to an eight-year extension, giving them their long-term replacement at first base. Just need to make it a full 6. No team was luckier than the Mariners last year. ZiPS was talking about 1980s minor league outfielder Ted Williams. Sotos plate discipline is other-worldly. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. Bobby Witt Jr. made the Opening Day roster, and MJ Melendez and Nick Pratto should be close behind him. The exercise continues this offseason. And do note that the numbers coming out of cleveland are above and beyond raises and extensions. Spring time in baseball is a wonderful, wonderful thing. ZiPS misses for teams from year to year are uncorrelated with an r^2 of one years miss to the next of 0.000575. ZiPS underperformed its usual matchup vs. Vegas, only going 17-13 in over/unders as of the date of release (April 6); historically, ZiPS has averaged 19-11. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. 2022 Playoff Odds, . This projection does include the addition of Matt Olson but it should pointed out, the Braves arent done with off-season moves. No team spent more during the offseason than the Rangers a fascinating turn after the club lost 102 games in 2021. Hes about half of their payroll now. Obviously ideally they would be generally good players who can thrive in Denver and just fall off less elsewhere. Shane Bazs elbow injury was a particularly unwelcome bit of news. Bold of you to assume deGrom will be healthy in October. by Retrosheet. Terms at draftkings.com/sportsbook. Would half their analysis department possess Ph.D.s in physics? Theyve assembled a surprisingly competent starting rotation given their home park, but the supporting cast for whichever stars are on their roster be it Bryant, Story, or Nolan Arenado just hasnt been good enough. In the American League Central, ATC is also modeling a 5% better chance of the Guardians being part of the postseason, whereas the Twins model out 4% worse versus the FGDC simulations. ZiPS projects the Rockies to be better than only the Nationals, but I expect the Nats have a better idea of exactly where their team is than the Rockies do. Not for thr names floated and not if theyre keeping Naylor. The ATC projections are more bullish on the White Soxs chances in 2022, putting the odds of Chicago making the playoffs at 82% versus the FanGraphs Depth Charts (FGDC) figure of 72%. The Jays get the top place in the table with the highest divisional odds. For more information on the ZiPS projections, please. Depth Charts: FanGraphs Depth Chart projections are a combination of ZiPS and Steamer projections with playing time allocated by our staff. I do think they ought to be in the market for a first base upgrade, keeping Jake Cronenworth at second and allowing Ha-Seong Kims eventual role be determined by what the Friars do with Tatis. If you think that certain franchises have a history of predictive over- or underperformance, youd have thought wrong, and Id bet its the same for other projection systems. The Dodgers argument starts with Freeman and the four former MVPs on their roster; their record $286 million payroll has allowed them to amass huge amounts of talent. Wander Francos very quickly become a star, and Brandon Lowe is my pick for the most underrated second baseman in the game. So its not surprising that when you total it up, two of the teams that have made the most in-season additions over the last 17 seasons, the Astros and Yankees, are the two teams that have underperformed most often in ZiPS. Its a deeper roster than last year, and even if areas like the bullpen arent exciting, the Jays have heirs and spares in place. They also traded for Matt Chapman, giving them a huge boost to their infield defense. Both systems love the Mets, as most models do because, honestly, they look great on paper. Nearly every major site has some form of power rankings, usually derived from whatever panel of experts each site employs. As for Washington, lets just say that their second-best projected offensive player was someone who I wasnt completely sure I had heard of before. Its hard to get where you want to go if you dont know where youre starting. After having typically appeared in the hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborskis ZiPS projections have now been released at FanGraphs for a decade. It was a sight to see. Another 15 wins to add to this projection seem pretty straightforward. Semien is a few years older, but after rightfully being a big part of the American League MVP race in two of the last three seasons, he starts off on a pretty high pedestal. It feels a little weird to be optimistic about the Mets after the season they just had (or perhaps because the Mets are one of the worlds most powerful pessimism-inducing entities). Their starting rotation remains shockingly thin, especially if Brash or Kirby stumble upon their introduction to the majors. The result is a million different rosters for each team and an associated winning percentage for each of those million teams. Read the rest of this entry . Stored within ZiPS are the first through 99th percentile projections for each player. Daimon Latino Nights is open every Wednesday from 8 PM to 2 AM. While its still taken as an assumption that hell return, the fact is he didnt sign before the 2021 season, he didnt sign during the 2021 season, and he didnt sign before the lockout. But if they did, the Pirates clearly didnt get the memo after they sent Oneil Cruz to Triple-A to start the season despite an encouraging, and at times electrifying, spring. So how does ZiPS calculate the season? They did manage to re-sign Brandon Belt, Anthony DeSclafani, and Alex Wood while also adding Carlos Rodn, Alex Cobb, and Matthew Boyd to their rotation and Joc Pederson to their lineup. The As have made a lot of improbable runs, but if they cause pain to the Astros and Mariners this year, it might be their most impressive surprise yet. Well update these throughout the season as more and more info gets added. Like the Rays, the projection systems have no idea what to do with the Giants. yet another projection system that seems to be higher on the phillies than the commentariat. If the ChiSox are truly limited to $10M max (seriously? Over the last decade, ZiPS has averaged 19.9 correct teams when looking at Vegas preseason over/under lines. Today was that glorious day for two of the biggest sites in the baseball universe, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus. This may look depressing, but it also reflects the fact that everyone in the division is getting a tougher schedule in 2023. Updated: Wednesday, January 18, 2023 1:06 PM ET, Park Factors Since these are my curated projections, I make changes based on my personal feelings about who will receive playing time, as filtered through arbitrary whimsy my logic and reasoning. Without further ado, here are the ATC forecasted win totals for 2022: And here are the simulated standings and playoffs odds: Lets take a quick look at some of the differences between the results for the ATC projections and the FanGraphs playoff odds. It's our predicted best guess on the early college basketball rankings after Week 11. Skiing in the Rockies sucks this time of year, Fangraphs' Newly Updated International Prospect Rankings, FanGraphs projects struggles for Giants in 2022 season. But many of the players who fell flat on their face in 2022 . All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Just get into the playoffs so I can wear my playoff poncho and swag chain!!! The last move giving Rodrguez the chance to start with the team may be the biggest source. Too many high impact FAs on the board. 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